Health Law Not A Sure Bet In Court
by Stuart Taylor, Jr.
Editor’s Note: This is an updated version of Stuart Taylor’s Dec. 12 Opening Argument column.
What chances of success await the lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the new health insurance reform law filed by 14 state attorneys general this week, with more lawsuits by states, individuals, and companies in the pipeline?
Not much, according to most of the academic experts who have weighed in. They confidently predict that the Supreme Court will (if the case gets that far) uphold the new law’s major provisions. These include the much-debated mandate for individuals to buy comprehensive health insurance unless they’re already covered by employer-based plans, and also the requirement that states spend billions of dollars expanding their Medicaid programs (unless they withdraw) and administering the complex new law.
These experts cite the justices’ very broad reading since the New Deal of Congress’ powers to regulate interstate commerce and to tax and spend.
The need to govern an ever more interconnected nation has spawned a long line of precedents expanding the commerce power.
I, too, would bet on the major provisions of the 2,400-page law being upheld. But "these challenges are not frivolous," as the Washington Post said in an editorial, and "the case is not as clear-cut as many legal scholars have argued."
The fact is that the costly federal mandates that the law imposes on state governments, individuals and families are without close precedents. And the lopsided academic response is attributable partly, though not entirely, to the lopsidedly liberal policy preferences of the professoriate.
Indeed, most scholars and other analysts have virtually ignored the new law’s most vulnerable (in my opinion) major provision, which the plaintiff states say violates their sovereignty.