The Politics Of Naming Sotomayor – The Ninth Justice
by Stuart Taylor, Jr.
I have given some reasons (noted below) why Sonia Sotomayor might be an especially controversial pick with conservatives and some centrists — not to mention yours truly.
So what political calculation might underlie President Obama‘s decision to nominate her anyway, despite his various suggestions that he would like to make a consensus pick?
It’s possible that Obama was simply wowed by her up-from-modest-circumstances life story, her supposed "empathy" for the poor and powerless, her summa cum laude performance at Princeton University, her judicial opinions on obscure subjects, or her performance when Obama interviewed her.
But the political payoff of naming the first Hispanic justice — and a woman to boot — seems to me the key. This is a shrewd nomination politically, if not necessarily a good one jurisprudentially, and not only because of the obvious payoff with Hispanic voters.
The choice of Sotomayor also puts Republicans and moderate Democrats who may be deeply unhappy with her jurisprudence in a lose-lose position, and Obama in a win-win position.
If Republicans attack Judge Sotomayor’s more controversial actions, they risk provoking a backlash among Hispanic voters, who have already been moving into the Democratic column in droves.
On the other hand, if Republicans hold their fire to avoid offending Hispanic voters, the president gets the benefit of installing a justice who seems deep into Democratic identity politics without the cost of an especially contentious confirmation battle.
The Republican dilemma is underscored by the fact that the Sotomayor actions they might be most eager to attack are themselves especially likely to engage the sympathies of Hispanic voters.